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Just after the New Year's holiday, the domestic compound fertilizer market has become stable. Due to the impact of raw material price fluctuations, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Although some manufacturers cut prices to attract orders, the market transaction is still flat. At present, the main factory quotation of 45% sulfur based compound fertilizer is 3250~3400 yuan/ton, that of 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer is 2950~3100 yuan/ton, and that of 48% high nitrogen compound fertilizer is 3250~3500 yuan/ton.
Weak vibration at the raw material end
The biggest variable in the compound fertilizer market is the price of raw materials, of which urea has the biggest variable and the most suspense. In addition, there is a large demand for high nitrogen compound fertilizer in spring cultivation, and urea is related to the whole sales market of compound fertilizer in spring cultivation. At present, the domestic urea market continues to be stable and weak. With the recent wave of price reduction and order collection operations by urea enterprises, the downstream market sentiment has gradually warmed up. In terms of supply, some gas-head enterprises have stopped production for maintenance, but coal-head enterprises are operating at full capacity. The daily output of urea is nearly 150000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. It is understood that fertilizer manufacturers in many places are overcoming various difficulties to ensure adequate supply of fertilizer for spring ploughing. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall demand for urea in China is decreasing, both in industry and agriculture. Currently, it is still mainly based on rigid demand procurement. Driven by the recent futures sentiment and the continuous downward trend of urea price, the downstream can gradually accept the current quotation of urea enterprises, and the receipt of enterprises in Shandong, Henan and other places has improved. A dealer in the southern Shandong region told reporters: "Because the current fertilizer price is still at a high level, and the future price trend is uncertain, we were prepared to give up winter storage, but recently the enterprise's quotation has been lowered, and the price tends to be reasonable, so we have properly prepared some (urea)." According to the prediction of insiders, the urea market may decline slightly in the first half of this month.
Recently, the prices of raw sulfur and synthetic ammonia have declined, which has weakened the cost support of phosphate fertilizer and intensified the wait-and-see mood of downstream manufacturers and dealers. The downstream purchase intention is not high, and the overall market performance is relatively flat. The reporter learned that recently, the price of monoammonium decreased by a small margin of 50-100 yuan/ton, and most of the manufacturers of diammonium restricted order taking in order to maintain the price, but that didn't work, and there was an embarrassing situation that there was no market for the price in many places. At present, 55 cents of the mainstream delivery price in Shandong is 3550-3600 yuan/ton, and 64% of the factory buyout price of granular diammonium in Shandong is 3900-4000 yuan/ton. The factory price of Hubei mainstream 55 powder is 3400-3500 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 64% granular diammonium chloride mainstream in Hubei is 3750-3800 yuan/ton.
At present, the potash fertilizer market is stabilizing as a whole. The domestic resource-based potassium sulfate plants started normally, and most manufacturers continued to quote earlier, so the trend of potassium sulfate was temporarily stable. The domestic price of 60% is 3520-3600 yuan/ton, and 62% of the port white potassium is 3680-3750 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic potassium chloride manufacturers declined slowly, and the price remained stable. The arrival of goods at ports has gradually increased, and the high-end price has declined slightly. Since January 1 of this year, China's potash fertilizer has implemented a zero tariff policy. Although this policy will not have a great impact on domestic production enterprises, it is good news for potash fertilizer importers, which to some extent alleviates the pressure of the current cost inversion of potash fertilizer importers. At the same time, it also conveys the importance of the country on domestic fertilizer supply and price stability and food security.
The future market is still stable
“With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the time of winter fertilizer reserve has been further shortened, and the popular players of winter fertilizer reserve in previous years are now out of favour, and the compound fertilizer market is in an awkward situation for a while," said the head of a compound fertilizer enterprise in southwest China. He analyzed that, first, the cost side was empty. Affected by the continuous weak fluctuation of upstream raw material price, the cost of compound fertilizer continued to loosen. Second, the demand support is insufficient. The dealers with locked orders in the early stage are actively demanding payment, and the market still focuses on digesting the low price goods in the early stage. Some downstream dealers have inventory and have no intention to reserve before the Spring Festival, which leads to weak overall market demand. Third, the downstream wait-and-see mood has intensified. The fertilizer reserve period in winter is long, there are many uncertain factors in the market, and the dealers have limited confidence in fertilizer reserve, especially the market volatility, so they should be cautious to avoid risks.
For the future market, insiders said that under the condition of weak support for raw material prices, the current compound fertilizer enterprises mainly deliver early orders. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will be mainly stable before the Spring Festival, and there will be small fluctuations during this period. At the same time, under the theme of national supply and price stability, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises will rise, and the supply of fertilizer for spring cultivation will be sufficient. The downstream doesn't need to worry about the shortage of supply during the fertilizer use period.