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Due to the high temperature weather, the demand for electricity in North Africa has greatly increased, natural gas consumption has increased, and there is a gap in supply and demand. Urea factories using natural gas as raw materials have been required to reduce production. Since July, the price of urea in Egypt has risen significantly to over $400 per ton. At the same time, geopolitical relations in Eastern Europe have deteriorated, and the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement has been suspended. Egypt has suspended the issuance of urea export licenses to ensure its own food security. Against the backdrop of the agricultural peak season gradually entering regions with high import demand such as India and Brazil, the continuous production and export restrictions by exporting countries have intensified concerns about fertilizer supply in the international market. In the past two days, India has released a new round of urea bidding information. The new bidding opening date is on August 9th, and it is expected that both the quantity and price will be higher than the bidding in June. The supply and demand in the international market are tightening, and prices have bottomed out and rebounded, driving the enthusiasm for exports in the domestic market. It is understood that some factories have received export orders, and short-term export expectations and low corporate inventory support domestic spot and futures prices in recent months. In the medium to long term, there is significant room for domestic production capacity growth in the second half of the year, with less domestic agricultural demand than in the first half, and risks still present. It is recommended to cautiously pursue higher futures operations.