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Recently, marketing and trade committee of China nitrogen fertilizer industry association in 2020 hosted by China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association was held in the form of video conference. Meeting pointed out that agricultural nitrogen demand is much better than last year in the first quarter of this year, but because of nitrogenous fertilizer product price and cost hanging upside down, nitrogen fertilizer industry turned from profit to loss.

In the first quarter, the whole industry made great efforts to produce nitrogen fertilizer and successfully completed the task of maintaining supply and stable price for spring tillage nitrogen fertilizer. According to the statistics of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, from January to March, the national nitrogen fertilizer output was 9.772 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. Urea output was 13.4 million tons (real quantity), an increase of 8.8% year-on-year. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of nitrogen fertilizer in China increased by 8.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, among which urea increased by 14.6% year-on-year, but the price decreased by 10.5% year-on-year.

Agricultural nitrogen fertilizer demand in the first quarter was significantly better than last year, but the industry has turned from profit to loss due to the fact that nitrogen fertilizer product prices and costs are inversely linked. According to statistics, from January to March in 2020, the total profit of the nitrogen fertilizer industry is 0.75 billion yuan.

For the second quarter of the nitrogen fertilizer market situation, experts said, the favorable factors are the agricultural demand for nitrogen fertilizer; second, the level of epidemic prevention and control in China has dropped, the national economy is gradually recovering, and industrial demand is expected to rebound; third, the effect of a series of national economic stimulus policies will gradually appear; fourth, due to the impact of the epidemic, the production of nitrogen fertilizer in India and other big producers has decreased and the demand for imports has increased; fifth, the cost and price of urea in China have dropped, and China's international competitiveness has improved significantly; sixth, some regional circulation link inventory is low; seventh, the delay of domestic new production capacity; eighth, some enterprises arrange overhaul.

Adverse factors include that the epidemic situation abroad is still not under control, and the export situation of chemical products is difficult to improve in a short term, low international and domestic energy prices, low prices of nitrogen fertilizer and chemical products; road tolls will be reinstated and freight charges raised.

The meeting hoped that nitrogen fertilizer production enterprises should strengthen communication and cooperation with downstream users and circulation enterprises, control the sales rhythm according to the demand, and maintain reasonable inventory. We should not only ensure the stable supply of fertilizer in summer, but also consider the bearing capacity of circulation enterprises and users to avoid large price fluctuations.