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Yellow phosphorus as a small variety, the first half of the market trend is similar to previous years, always showing a placidity trading pattern, the price has been maintained at 14,000 ~ 15,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) narrow range.However, a CCTV report in early July injected "chicken blood" into the yellow phosphorus market, and the price jumped in a few days, rising by more than 10,000 yuan.However, insiders believe that due to the lack of positive changes in the demand side, the price inflation stimulated by external factors will not be maintained for a long time. With the elimination of short-term interference factors and the resumption of production, the yellow phosphorus market will return to silence.
Environmental protection triggers the yellow phosphorus market.
On July 3, CCTV's focus interview exposed the chaotic production of yellow phosphorus in some areas of guizhou, which has serious pollution problems such as exhaust straight emission and phosphorus residue and sludge.Affected by this news, all the yellow phosphorus enterprises in guizhou stopped production and rectification, and some yellow phosphorus installations in yunnan and sichuan "stopped", resulting in a sharp decline in the industry's overall operating rate, a sharp drop in market supply, coupled with the shortage of downstream inventory, product prices quickly shot up.
Zhuochuang information data show that after the CCTV exposure, yellow phosphorus market immediately broke through the long-standing price range, within a week to pull more than ten thousand yuan.The yellow phosphorus such as yunnan guizhou and sichuan main producing area quotation is generally in 25,000 yuan above, the downstream enterprise wait-and-see atmosphere is thick, the producer and circulation link presses the price to wait for rises the intention to be strong, the spot trade is rare.
It is understood that the southwest is the main gathering area of China's yellow phosphorus industry, of which yunnan, guizhou and sichuan provinces yellow phosphorus production accounted for more than 90% of the country.It is reported that at present, there are 21 yellow phosphorus plants in guizhou, yunnan yuxi, kunming and sichuan mabian areas have stopped production, corresponding capacity of 578,000 tons, accounting for 45.2% of the industry's effective capacity.
From the normal start of enterprise, yellow phosphorus price short - term rigid obvious.Yunnan pingbian yellow phosphorus factory produces about 40 tons of yellow phosphorus per day. In addition to the early orders executed, the quoted price of net phosphorus acceptance is as high as 28,000 yuan, and the quoted price of spot exchange is 26,000 yuan.
According to the introduction of Wang Jian, deputy general manager of sichuan mianyang qishingxing company, the company's yellow phosphorus unit is running normally at present, with a daily production of about 100 tons of yellow phosphorus, and the new quotation of 25,000 yuan of net phosphorus acceptance.He believes that although the current yellow phosphorus market transaction price is high, but the volume of volume is not significantly enlarged, indicating that the base of price increase is not firm, so it is difficult to last.
The imbalance between supply and demand restrains prices.
From the perspective of resources and environmental protection, yellow phosphorus should be worth the money, but the price has been low for a long time, and the whole industry is often in the red.The reason is mainly limited by excess production capacity, which is not matched with the whole downstream industrial chain, and the imbalance between supply and demand restrains price rise.
Statistics show that despite several rounds of industry regulation, China's annual production capacity of yellow phosphorus has been maintained at about 1.5 million tons, while the maximum annual demand, including export, rarely exceeds 900,000 tons.
According to baichuan yingfu analysts, currently there are nearly 100 yellow phosphorus enterprises, which maintain normal production of about 60.In the first half of this year, China's total yellow phosphorus production capacity was still 1.37 million tons, despite a year-on-year reduction of 67 thousand tons. The surplus situation has not been fundamentally improved.
Chengcheng Group, the relevant person in charge of phosphorus division, said although the company owned by the clear star stake in yunnan have yellow phosphorus production capacity 180000 tons/year, the recent stock in five consecutive limit up capital market, but this is purely a marketing hype, does not change the excess capacity of the suppressing effect of the industry, yellow phosphorus after prices will recover from month to month.
Downstream demand growth is sluggish.
From the perspective of industrial chain, the downstream products of yellow phosphorus are mainly thermal phosphoric acid and its phosphate, phosphorus trichloride, glyphosate and so on.Among them, phosphoric acid and its downstream phosphate have always been the largest consumption end of yellow phosphorus. However, with the comprehensive implementation of phosphorus prohibition in detergent, the largest industrial use of bulk product sodium tripolyphosphate disappears, while the overall consumption of yellow phosphorus by other industrial USES, including food additives, is limited.
In terms of pesticide demand, with the gradual banning of organophosphorus pesticides, the scale of phosphorus consumption products with phosphorus trichloride as intermediate is shrinking.At present in the field of pesticide, glyphosate for another large consumption of phosphorus, but domestic glyphosate is a serious excess capacity, combined with pesticides, zero growth constraints, as well as the product itself exists controversy of environment pollution, food safety, reducing its use is a general trend, glyphosate is therefore difficult to pull the yellow phosphorus consumption increased dramatically.
According to the market operation rules, the yellow phosphorus price spike will generally lead the downstream products to rise, but the recent downstream market did not immediately follow the trend.This on the one hand from the downstream market downturn, on the other hand also reflects the downstream market cautious and rational.For example, in view of the sharp rise of yellow phosphorus price, some phosphate companies choose to stop for maintenance, avoiding the risk of high cost.Another example is glyphosate products, whose spot price index was 24301 in mid-july, up 2%, and the mainstream transaction price was 24,200 ~ 24,500 yuan.
Li Xing, chairman of the board of jiangyin chengxing group, said that the price of yellow phosphorus has soared, leading to downstream purchases.Take chengxing as an example, the annual export of phosphoric acid is nearly 200,000 tons, which is totally unaffordable at the current yellow phosphorus price.
Jiangsu nantong jiangshan stock co., LTD., which has a capacity of 70,000 tons per year, also said that the cost of glyphosate is affected not only by the price of raw materials, but also by the policy environment, market demand, utilization rate and other factors. It remains to be seen whether it can follow the increase of yellow phosphorus price this time.
The price spike has been spurred by environmental regulations, and the yellow phosphorus industry is clearly paying the bills.In addition, the ministry of ecology and environment issued a comprehensive plan on air pollution control of industrial furnaces and kilns on July 9, which clearly calls for the elimination of outdated production capacity and substandard industrial furnaces and kilns.The yellow phosphorus electric furnace belongs to the smelting furnace type, has been included in the key air pollution monitoring object, stipulated that the yellow phosphorus tail gas purification recovery utilization rate is not less than 85%.
In this regard, wang jian believes that with the increase of investment in environmental protection, the production cost of yellow phosphorus will increase accordingly, which will play a certain supporting role to its price and push the price of yellow phosphorus into a new operating range. However, relative stability is still the main keynote.