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This week, there was news that monoammonium may hit the bottom and rebound. In fact, the price of monoammonium has stabilized for a period of time, some industries speculated that monoammonium may hit the bottom. However, some industries still hold a bearish attitude towards. Recently, the industry reported that there has been an increase in monoammonium inquiries in some regions, and it has been verified that there are still few substantial transactions. Currently, the mainstream factory quotation for 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is between 2400-2500 yuan (ton price, the same below), The factory quotation for 55% powdered ammonium from Anhui Daichang was lowered by 50 yuan to 2505 yuan this week, while the factory quotation for 55% powdered ammonium from Sichuan enterprises is around 2400 yuan. However, most enterprises are selling low content ammonium monohydrate, such as 45% -52%. It is reported that the recent sales situation is good, and order acceptance is controlled.
On the surface, there is not much change in the price of monoammonium. Some companies have not adjusted their prices for a long time, and the actual prices have also remained stable. Only some companies have adjusted their inflated prices. This situation has persisted for a period of time without significant adjustments, and some industries speculate that monoammonium is about to hit the bottom, which is also normal. As a raw material for compound fertilizers, autumn is the main venue for ammonium nitrate throughout the year. Due to poor market conditions in the first half of the year, compound fertilizer companies may have a low purchase volume of ammonium nitrate, and may have the intention to reserve ammonium nitrate in advance in the near future. However, it is also important to pay attention to the overall trend of the fertilizer market. The price increase of urea has indeed made other fertilizer varieties "envious", but urea prices are also rapidly rising and falling. Recently, agricultural demand has gradually ended, and the later stage of the market is "worrying". Monoammonium also needs to consider the minimum quantity of monoammonium purchased by composite fertilizer plants. Although small and medium-sized composite fertilizer enterprises still have certain rigid demands, the demand of composite fertilizer plants accounts for a large proportion of the overall demand. Therefore, there are still many issues to consider in terms of demand for monoammonium.
In terms of monoammonium supply, the operating rate of monoammonium has been maintained at a relatively low level in recent months, less than 40%. Some companies previously planned to resume production in June, but did not. Some companies planned to resume production in July, but recently postponed it to August. This proves that the supply pressure of enterprises is still high, and their inventory pressure cannot be greatly alleviated. Therefore, they continue to maintain low operating rates. However, in July, some companies will increase their operating rates, with monoammonium as the raw material, It is necessary to prepare in advance, so the operating rate of ammonium nitrate should gradually increase in the later stage.
The cost support of monoammonium raw materials is still insufficient, and the price of phosphate ore has temporarily stabilized after the price reduction. Currently, the entry price of 28% grade phosphate ore in Hubei is around 800 yuan, and the entry price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 920 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to the previous period. In some regions, the official ore prices have decreased by more than 100 yuan compared to the previous period, and there is still a risk of further price reduction in the future, but it should not be easy to experience a significant decline. After the recovery of sulfur, it has temporarily stabilized in the near future. This week, the prices of Puguang Sulfur at Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Plant have temporarily stabilized at 830 yuan and 730 yuan, respectively. The prices of granular sulfur at Changjiang Port have remained stable at 800-820 yuan, and there should be no significant changes in the short term. According to a rough calculation by Zhongfei.com, the high-end complete cost of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is around 2400 yuan, indicating the possibility of some low-end prices of ammonium monohydrate being inverted.
In summary, there is not much room for a decrease in monoammonium, and there may be signs of a slight rebound in the short term. However, it is still necessary to continue to monitor downstream demand.